In the first half of 2022, the isopropanol market as a whole was dominated by medium low level shocks. Taking Jiangsu market as an example, the average market price in the first half of the year was 7343 yuan/ton, up 0.62% month on month and down 11.17% year on year. Among them, the highest price was 8000 yuan/ton, which appeared in the middle of March, the lowest price was 7000 yuan/ton, and it appeared in the lower part of April. The price difference between the high end and the low end was 1000 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 14.29%.
Interval fluctuation amplitude is limited

In the first half of 2022, the isopropanol market will basically show a trend of first rising and then declining, but the fluctuation space is relatively limited. From January to mid March, the isopropanol market rose in shock. At the beginning of the Spring Festival, the market trading activity gradually declined, the trading orders were mostly wait-and-see, and the market price basically fluctuated between 7050-7250 yuan/ton; After returning from the Spring Festival, the upstream raw material acetone and propylene market rose to varying degrees, driving the enthusiasm of isopropanol plants to increase. The focus of domestic isopropanol market negotiations quickly rose to 7500-7550 yuan/ton, but the market gradually fell back to 7250-7300 yuan/ton due to the sluggish recovery of terminal demand; In March, the export demand was strong. Some isopropanol plants were exported to the port, and the forward price of WTI crude oil quickly exceeded $120/barrel. The offer of isopropanol plants and the market continued to increase. Under the buying mentality of downstream, the purchase intention increased. By the middle of March, the market rose to a high level of 7900-8000 yuan/ton. From March to the end of April, the isopropanol market continued to decline. On the one hand, Ningbo Juhua’s isopropanol unit was successfully output and exported in March, and the market supply and demand balance was broken again. On the other hand, in April, the regional logistics transport capacity declined, leading to the gradual contraction of domestic trade demand. Near April, the market price fell back to the low level of 7000-7100 yuan/ton. From May to June, the isopropanol market was dominated by narrow range shocks. After the continuous decline of the price in April, some domestic isopropyl alcohol units were shut down for maintenance, and the market price was tightened, but the domestic demand was flat. After the completion of export stocking, the market price showed insufficient upward momentum. At this stage, the market mainstream operation range was 7200-7400 yuan/ton.
The rising trend of total supply is obvious, and the export demand also rebounds

In terms of domestic production: Ningbo Juhua’s 50000 t/a isopropanol unit was successfully produced and exported in March, but at the same time, Dongying Haike’s 50000 t/a isopropanol unit has been dismantled. According to the methodology of Zhuochuang Information, it was removed from the isopropanol production capacity, making the domestic isopropanol production capacity stable at 1.158 million tons. In terms of output, the export demand in the first half of the year was fair, and the output showed an upward trend. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, in the first half of 2022, China’s isopropanol output will be about 255900 tons, an increase of 60000 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 30.63%.
Imports: Due to the increase of domestic supply and the surplus of domestic supply and demand, the import volume shows a downward trend. From January to June 2022, China’s total imports of isopropyl alcohol were about 19300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2200 tons, or 10.23%.
In terms of export: At present, domestic supply pressure is not decreasing, and some factories still rely on the easing of export demand for inventory pressure. From January to June 2022, China’s total exports of isopropanol will be about 89300 tons, an increase of 42100 tons or 89.05% year on year.
Gross profit and yield differentiation of dual process

According to the calculation of theoretical gross profit model of isopropanol, the theoretical gross profit of acetone hydrogenation isopropanol process in the first half of 2022 will be 603 yuan/ton, 630 yuan/ton higher than the same period last year, 2333.33% higher than the same period last year; The theoretical gross profit of propylene hydration isopropanol process was 120 yuan/ton, 1138 yuan/ton lower than that of the same period last year, 90.46% lower than that of the same period last year. It can be seen from the comparison chart of the gross profit of the two isopropanol processes that in 2022, the theoretical gross profit trend of the two isopropanol processes will be differentiated, the theoretical gross profit level of the acetone hydrogenation process will be stable, and the average monthly profit will basically fluctuate in the range of 500-700 yuan/ton, but the theoretical gross profit of the propylene hydration process once lost nearly 600 yuan/ton. Compared with the two processes, the profitability of acetone hydrogenation isopropanol process is better than that of propylene hydration process.
From the data of isopropanol production and demand in recent years, the growth rate of domestic demand has not kept up with the pace of capacity expansion. In the case of long-term oversupply, the theoretical profitability of isopropanol plants has become a key factor determining the level of operation. In 2022, the gross profit of acetone hydrogenation isopropanol process will continue to be better than that of propylene hydration, making the output of acetone hydrogenation isopropanol plant much higher than that of propylene hydration. According to data monitoring, in the first half of 2022, the production of isopropanol by acetone hydrogenation will account for 80.73% of the total national production.
Focus on cost side trend and export demand in the second half of the year
In the second half of 2022, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, no new isopropanol unit has been put on the market at present. The domestic isopropanol capacity will remain at 1.158 million tons, and the domestic output will still be mainly produced by the acetone hydrogenation process. With the rise of the risk of global economic stagnation, the demand for isopropanol exports will be weakened. At the same time, the domestic terminal demand will recover slowly, or the situation of “peak season is not prosperous” will occur. In the second half of the year, the pressure of supply and demand will remain unchanged. From the perspective of cost, considering that some new phenol ketone plants will be put into operation in the second half of the year, the supply of acetone market will continue to exceed the demand, and the price of acetone as the upper raw material will continue to fluctuate at a medium low level; In the second half of the year, affected by the interest rate increase policy of the Federal Reserve and the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States, the center of gravity of international oil prices may move downward. The cost side is the main factor affecting propylene prices. The propylene market prices in the second half of the year will decline compared with the first half of the year. In a word, the cost pressure of isopropanol enterprises in acetone hydrogenation process is not large for the time being, and the cost pressure of isopropanol enterprises in propylene hydration process is expected to ease, but at the same time, due to the lack of effective support in cost, the rebound power of isopropanol market is also insufficient. It is expected that the isopropanol market will maintain an interval shock pattern in the second half of the year, paying attention to the upstream acetone price trend and the change of export demand.

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